Sunday, February 26, 2012

Congratulations, crisis avoided: Greece

Hurrah!  All is well in the- fuck it just read the articles:  (emphasis added)
The Dow Jones industrial average crossed 13,000 on Tuesday for the first time since before the 2008 financial crisis.
The Dow passed 13,000 about two hours into the trading day.... Its last time above 13,000 during a trading day was May 20, 2008, four months before the Lehman Brothers investment bank went under.
US stocks got help from a long-awaited bailout deal for Greece, aimed at preventing a potentially catastrophic default.....
Just after 11.30am EST, the Dow was up 43 points at 12,993. In other trading, the Standard & Poor's 500 was up five points at 1,366. The Nasdaq composite index was up 10 points at 2,962.
And also

1. Greece will have to accept non-Greek inspectors in Athens
European monitors, "an enhanced and permanent presence on the ground in Greece" as the statement put it, will move into Athens ministries.
Quick! Into the Rabbit Hole!

The Private-Sector Involvement or debt haircut scheme
As evening moved to night the early hours and then morning,sleep deprivation made the March Hare flutter before Eurogroup members eyes once more. His words shown below suddenly seemed reasonable.
Those investors who did not accept a 21% debt haircut will be keen to accept a 53.5% one!
Of course they will! Meanwhile back in reality I expect plenty of trouble from this. I hope that the new forecasts for Greek public expenditure allowed for expensive legal bills. 
Official debt haircuts
These are noticeable in the main by their absence and I am reminded of the words of George Orwell
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
And if I may mix my literary allusions the March Hare is back again as the European Central Bank which bought Greek bonds at 80 which are currently worth 20 will share its “profits” with Greece. I kid you not! Does that mean that buying at 20 and selling at 80 creates a loss? Perhaps the March Hare can explain….
Just to be clear the ECB does have income from the coupon or interest-payments on the Greek debt that it holds. However this is far smaller than the capital losses described above and even worse is another “round-tripping” exercise. Greece is receiving bailout money from the Euro zone to help it pay the interest which this part of it is being paid back to the Euro zone representative the ECB. Yes taxpayers do not only subsidise the activities of private-banks these days they also do the same for central banks. 
Whatever the cost you must protect the banks
Estimated bank recapitalization needs have increased . The Blackrock diagnostic exercise, the PSI exercise (including its likely accounting treatment), and refined estimates of resolution costs (as opposed to recapitalization costs) have pointed to higher needs than assumed at the time of the Fifth program review (€50 billion versus €40 billion previously). Recoveries, through the sale of bank equity, are not expected to be materially higher in the medium-term.
You may note the last sentence too.
You are most certainly welcome Greece.  Thanks to the valiant efforts of the EU and EZ and IMF and ECB you have managed to avoid a disorderly default and are on the path to slashing destructive social safety nets.  You may now dream of a future (sometime post-2030) when you will no longer be shackled by your abhorrent public servants and social compacts.  Sleep well knowing that the safety and stability of the banks has been secured.

A Starbucks coffee shop burns, right, as firefighters try to cut open a locked truck to get out the fire hose after protesters took the keys
AAAAHHHH not the Starbucks!  That's the one soulless corporation I like *sadface*

Suddenly I grow concerned for the hoi poloi in Greece .

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